from The Guardian Simon Tisdall
Donald Trump is accustomed to getting his own way. That could change next week when he’s confronted by the mess he’s making in the Middle East. As he begins a three-day trip to Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, the US president is promising great things. As ever, he’s delusional. The reality is that reckless, incoherent and neglectful US regional policies are failing across the board. A fundamental course correction is urgently required.
Gulf leaders have the leverage to set Trump straight, if they decide to use it. He relies on them to an unprecedented degree – far more than on Europe – as diplomatic interlocutors, security partners and financial backers. His approach to Palestine, which is on the brink of a second Nakba (catastrophe), is a mix of prejudice, cruelty and sheer ignorance. Without Arab help, the US and Israel may remain trapped indefinitely in a destructive policy cul-de-sac.
Trump knows he cannot afford to ignore the views of the Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, and his Gulf counterparts on Gaza, Syria and Yemen. They oppose war with Iran, as previously threatened by the US and Israel. Trump needs them as allies in his trade and tariff feud with China. Gulf diplomats hosted the Ukraine-Russia peace talks he personally promoted. He is desperate to keep oil prices low. And he covets multibillion dollar Middle East investment deals and arms sales.
Yet for Gulf support, there is a price to pay. Take Trump’s hope of extending the so-called Abraham accords by normalising Saudi-Israeli relations. Whatever Trump says, Salman vows this cannot happen without guaranteed progress towards an independent Palestinian state – a prospect Israel’s government abhors. Salman has described the post-7 October killing of more than 52,000 Palestinians in Gaza as “genocide”. In Riyadh, Trump will face intense pressure to end Israel’s blockade and reinstate the ceasefire.
US-Israel relations are growing increasingly strained, with Trump so far declining invitations to add Jerusalem to his trip. Careless of the impact on surviving Israeli hostages held by Hamas, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, and his far-right allies plan a long-term military occupation of Gaza and mass expulsions of Palestinians. Yet while Trump was supportive two months ago, talking foolishly about building a “Riviera of the Middle East”, he seems belatedly to have realised peace does not lie that way.
Netanyahu, who continues to urge the US to join Israel in military action against Iran this year, was caught by surprise by Trump’s sudden announcement last month of talks with Tehran about its nuclear programme. A similarly abrupt Trump U-turn last week, ending US airstrikes on Yemen, also blindsided Israel, which continues to bomb Houthi fighters. Both policy shifts, and Trump’s changing tone on Gaza, follow effective Gulf lobbying...
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